The Korean Meteorological Society 1

Journal Archive

Atmosphere - Vol. 24 , No. 3

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in 2010 2010년 태풍 특징

Author: Myeong Soon Lim1), 2)Affiliation: 1)National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Korea
Author: Il-Ju Moon2), *Affiliation: 2)Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Program in Marine Meteorology, Jeju National University, Jeju, Korea
Author: Yu-Mi Cha1)Affiliation: 3)National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Korea
Author: Ki-Ho Chang3)Affiliation: 4)Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea
Author: Ki-Ryong Kang1)Affiliation: 5)Weather Radar Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea
Author: Kun Young Byun1)
Author: Do-Shick Shin4)
Author: Ji Young Kim5)
Correspondence: * Il-Ju Moon, Jeju National University, 102 Jejudaehak-ro, Jeju 690-756, Korea. Phone : +82-64-754-3412, Fax : +82-64-756-3483 E-mail : ijmoon@jejunu.ac.kr

Journal Information
Journal ID (publisher-id): ATMOS
Journal : Atmosphere
ISSN: 1598-3560 (Print)
ISSN: 2288-3266 (Online)
Publisher: Korean Meteorological Society
Article Information
Received Day: 08 Month: 03 Year: 2014
Accepted Day: 12 Month: 05 Year: 2014
Print publication date: Month: 09 Year: 2014
Volume: 24 Issue: 3
First Page: 283 Last Page: 301
Publisher Id: ATMOS_2014_v24n3_283
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.3.283

Abstract

In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western North Pacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics of TCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TC genesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecast in 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data reveal that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Niño to La Niña in June and the La Niña event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We found that these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TC development area prior to May and at tropics east of 140oE during summer mostly due to low SST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event (in shifting time and La Niña intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallest TC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that the ENSO episode shifting from El Niño to strong La Niña in summer leads to extremely low TC genesis during La Niña although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs, DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula (KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above 20°N and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought the most serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official track forecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km, which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasing for last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.


Keywords: Tropical cyclone, western North Pacific, vertical wind shear, La Niña

1. 서 론

최근 10년 동안(2000~2009)의 한반도에서 발생하는 자연재해 피해현황을 유형별로 살펴보면, 태풍 56.6%, 호우 24.5%, 대설 11.3%, 태풍·호우 7.2%, 풍랑 0.4%의 순으로 태풍에 동반된 호우 피해까지 합하면 태풍으로 인한 직·간접적 피해규모는 총 63%에 달한다. 또한 같은 기간 태풍으로 인해 발생한 연평균 인명과 재산 피해액은 각각 41명과 1조 219억 원에 달한다(NEMA, 2010). 태풍으로 인한 막대한 인적·경제적 피해를 예방하고 최소화시키기 위해서는 태풍 예측의 정확도를 높이는 것이 중요하다. 이를 위해서 한 해 태풍 시즌이 끝나면 그 해 태풍에 대한 사후 재분석을 실시하여 태풍예보의 기초자료로 활용할 필요가 있다.

미국 National Hurricane Center (NHC)는 대서양 및 동태평양에서 발생한 개별 허리케인에 대한 사후분석을 통하여 태풍 위치 및 강도, 종관장, 기상학적 통계분석결과, 피해 등의 종합적인 정보를 수집하여 Tropical Cyclone Reports를 작성하고 있다(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov). 이러한 정보는 매달 Tropical Cyclone Monthly Summary 형태로 요약되어 제공될 뿐만 아니라 허리케인 시즌이 끝나면 그 해의 허리케인 특징을 요약하여 Monthly Weather Review에 게재한다(Brown et al., 2010; Collins and Roache, 2011; Stewart and Cangialosi, 2012). 일본 도쿄 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC)에서는 남중국해를 포함한 북서태평양에서 발생한 TS (Tropical Storm) 강도 이상의 열대저기압에 대한 사후분석을 통해 태풍의 중심위치, 중심기압과 최대 지속 풍속, 대기순환장, 태풍예보오차 등을 분석하여 매년 태풍보고서를 작성하여 제공한다(http://www.jma.go.jp). 미국 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)에서도 북서태평양, 북인도양, 남태평양, 남인도양에서 발생한 열대저기압에 대한 사후분석을 통해 연간 열대저기압 보고서(Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, ATCR)를 발간하여 제공하고 있다(http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/annual-tropical-cyclonereports).

우리나라 기상청(Korea Meteorological Administration, KMA)에서는 2006년부터 그해 발생한 태풍의 특징과 예보정확도에 대한 재분석을 실시하여 매년 태풍분석 보고서를 발간하며 그 결과를 이듬해 태&